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MDL

Description:  This application shows the overall chance that storm surges will be greater than a user selected number of feet above normal tide levels during the 3 days after issuance. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs created using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHC's forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. We invite you to click Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities to learn more about this product, including a detailed description and a few examples.  

Experimental Storm Surge Probability Products:  The NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory is producing, on an experimental basis, Storm Surge Exceedence Products. These graphics will show storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 10 to 90 percent chance of being exceeded (in 10% increments) during the next 3 days. Email feedback is requested about these experimental exceedence products.  

Backup Availability and Archive:  In the event NHC has difficulty creating the storm surge images, the Meteorological Development Laboratory's Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge website maintains the same information. An archive of storm surge products is also available from the MDL website.